Domestic-driven growth needed for emerging markets
During the IMF and World Bank Group Spring Meetings of 2014, the growth, transformation and upgrading of the Chinese economy was a major topic among delegates.
Financial ministers and central bank presidents across the world gave great credit to China for the stable development of the country's economy, which they believe to have driven global economic growth.
The scale of the Chinese economy determines that even if its increase slows down, total demand will remain huge. China needs to reduce the percentage of investment in its GDP when it rebalances its economy, and that will require a protracted period of time and adaptation from the rest of the world too.
2013 was a watershed year in the sense that emerging markets and low-income countries together, for the first time in history, contributed more than 50 percent to world GDP, reflecting a fundamental change of the global economic structure. 2014 will be a year of transition and reform for the world economy, presenting a great time window for deepening reform and laying a better foundation for sustainable development in the years to come.
The world economy is still recovering, with the IMF's latest report predicting a 3.6 percent increase in world GDP in 2014. The figure seems encouraging, but it does not suggest a very strong momentum. Current economic growth in developed countries is partly driven by tightened fiscal policies, which is unsustainable. As a result, developed economies need to rediscover a pivot for growth.
In the emerging market economies, 4.9 percent growth is expected this year. However, emerging markets need to realize that their external environment has already gone through important changes. In the past 5 years, the success of emerging markets was largely a result of favorable external factors such as plentiful capital and low interest rates. Now, with the tapering of QE by the US Fed Reserve and other similar changes, the financial markets will continue to fluctuate, making it necessary for emerging market economies to refrain from relying too much on external factors and seek economic reform and domestic-driven growth.
The scale of the Chinese economy determines that even if its increase slows down, total demand will remain huge. China needs to reduce the percentage of investment in its GDP when it rebalances its economy, and that will require a protracted period of time and adaptation from the rest of the world too.
2013 was a watershed year in the sense that emerging markets and low-income countries together, for the first time in history, contributed more than 50 percent to world GDP, reflecting a fundamental change of the global economic structure. 2014 will be a year of transition and reform for the world economy, presenting a great time window for deepening reform and laying a better foundation for sustainable development in the years to come.
The world economy is still recovering, with the IMF's latest report predicting a 3.6 percent increase in world GDP in 2014. The figure seems encouraging, but it does not suggest a very strong momentum. Current economic growth in developed countries is partly driven by tightened fiscal policies, which is unsustainable. As a result, developed economies need to rediscover a pivot for growth.
In the emerging market economies, 4.9 percent growth is expected this year. However, emerging markets need to realize that their external environment has already gone through important changes. In the past 5 years, the success of emerging markets was largely a result of favorable external factors such as plentiful capital and low interest rates. Now, with the tapering of QE by the US Fed Reserve and other similar changes, the financial markets will continue to fluctuate, making it necessary for emerging market economies to refrain from relying too much on external factors and seek economic reform and domestic-driven growth.
