Beijing fervently hoped that its policy would help domestic automakers -- which are laggards in conventional gasoline engine technology -- to leapfrog their foreign rivals.

Instead, it is Japanese automakers that are poised to use those subsidies to dominate China's EV market.

Last week, Honda Motor Co.'s joint venture with Guangzhou Automobile Group Co. began testing an electric Honda Fit, with plans for production in the south China city of Guangzhou. The Fit EV, which has a range of 150 km and a top speed of 144 km per hour, will become the first electric vehicle assembled by a global automaker in China.

Meanwhile, Toyota Motor Corp. unveiled a $690 million (4.4 billion yuan) technology center last month in the east China city of Changshu. Toyota says its two Chinese joint ventures will build plug-ins and electric vehicles by 2015.

Nissan Motor Co. also plans to introduce an EV in 2015 via its partnership with Dongfeng Motor Group.

When these automakers start producing these vehicles, they will qualify for government subsidies ranging up to 60,000 yuan for EVs and 50,000 yuan for plug-ins.

Other foreign automakers also have announced plans to build EVs in China. But many of them did so solely to obtain government permission to expand production of gasoline models in China.

For example, Daimler AG has confirmed plans to produce a prototype EV with partner BYD Co. next year. But the automaker has not yet disclosed its production plans.

With the possible exception of Daimler, it's not clear yet whether European, Korean or North American automakers are as serious about EV production in China as Toyota, Honda and Nissan.

Thus, the Japanese automakers will enjoy the "first mover" advantage in China's EV market.

But what about domestic Chinese brands? Haven't several companies claimed they are developing EVs and plug-ins? Yes, they did. But few have demonstrated their technology. Even the Chinese government has lately grown skeptical about EV sales reported by domestic automakers.

Earlier this week, the government said it will verify EV sales to make sure that no automakers get subsidies with falsified sales records.

BYD Co. is the only Chinese automaker that has started selling an electric car, the e6 compact sedan. But given its prohibitively high price of 249,800 yuan after subsidies, it has been nearly impossible for BYD to attract many buyers in China.

By contrast, Japanese brands have strong EV technology. Toyota has sold more than 1 million units Prius hybrids worldwide, while Nissan and Mitsubishi both have rolled out well-designed EVs.

And when they start producing these vehicles in China, Honda, Nissan and Toyota will significantly lower their production costs.

True, Japanese automakers in China lack necessary infrastructure such as battery charging stations. That means their EV sales to Chinese consumers will be limited over the next few years. But that's a hurdle that all automakers in China will have to confront.

The Chinese government has urged domestic cities to accelerate the construction of charging stations. And when that infrastructure takes shape, Japanese automakers will emerge as the clear EV leaders, leaving everyone else in the dust.