Revenue from Linux server operation environments (SOE) is expected to display a five-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 64 percent in China, according to figures from research group IDC.

The actual numbers aren't yet that big -- translating into Linux SOE revenues going from $19.9 million this year to $117.6 million by 2009 -- but the high CAGR calls attention to the skyrocketing potential of Linux in China.

It's a potential on which Novell has doubled down. IDC's numbers, and its analysis of the Chinese situation, explain why Novell might have made the right decision, with analyst Vivian Tero pointing to a "weak demand for high-end enterprise servers and their corresponding operating system software" while "Linux [has] continued to grow due to the downsizing of customers' server infrastructure requirements and the increasing adoption of x86 servers."

IDC expects to present more detailed information on the state of open source in China during its upcoming October, 18 conference in Beijing.