Manufacturing News

Economic Slowdown Dwindles Emerging Auto Markets

As automakers desperately look to China to compensate for falling sales in the U.S., Europe and Japan, potential car buyers in the once-sizzling market are pulling back.

Smoke and flashing lights, dancing girls in white go-go boots -- the world's top automakers put on dazzling shows Tuesday as they wooed Chinese buyers with their latest models.

But for all the flash at this year's Guangzhou Auto Show, automakers face a dimmer outlook for global sales, even here in the world's second-largest vehicle market.

Just as General Motors Corp. and other manufacturers are desperately looking to emerging markets to compensate for falling sales in the U.S., Europe and Japan, potential car buyers in China, Russia and other once sizzling markets are pulling back.

With the economy slowing in China, people are worried about their pay and job security. News about the global financial crisis and plunging markets is also undermining consumer confidence.

"I was planing to buy a Lavida two months ago, but now have just changed my mind," said Yang Hong, a senior manager for an audio equipment company in Shanghai, referring to a popular China-market model made by Volkswagen.

"It's not that I can't afford it, but I think it's not so necessary, so I can wait until next year," Yang said.

The big automakers' ability to weather the crisis hinges on drawing jittery customers like Yang back into dealerships, especially in China.

The urgency is particularly acute for America's big automakers -- GM, Ford Motor Co. and Chrysler LLC -- which have been battered by the U.S. economic meltdown and are lobbying the federal government for a $25 billion bailout that looks increasingly murky. GM has said it could run out of cash by year's end without government aid.

"We have to recognize that the U.S. is where the problem is now. We're growing in these other areas," said Robert Socia, vice president of Shanghai General Motors, one of GM's eight joint ventures in China. He spoke on the sidelines of the Guangzhou Auto Show.

While the company's worldwide sales fell 11 percent in the third-quarter, many developing country markets were still growing at double-digit rates: 15.1 percent in Russia, 15.5 percent in Brazil, 12 percent in China. India grew at a more modest 5 percent.

Sales outside North America accounted for 61 percent of GM's total revenues in the third-quarter of this year, up from 56 percent a year earlier.

Rival Ford is likewise looking to China for growth -- 30 percent in 2007 -- it can't expect to find back home.

"We're serious about this market. It's becoming really big and influential," said Nigel Harris, general manager for sales at Changan Ford Mazda Automobile Co., a joint venture in China.

Ditto for German automaker Volkswagen AG, whose sales through its numerous units and joint ventures climbed nearly 13 percent in January-October to 853,800.

China's total auto sales rose 11 percent in the first 10 months of this year. That's robust compared with the contractions in the U.S., Europe and Japan, but nowhere near the 18.5 percent increase seen last year.

Sales fell in August and September before gaining 8.37 percent in October, as controls on credit hit large car sales, while high gas prices dented purchases of economy models.

"Definitely the market now is slowing down," said Yale Zhang, a Shanghai-based analyst with CSM Worldwide. He expects sales growth to fall to single digits in 2008 for the first time this decade.

Other emerging markets are also getting hit. In Brazil, automakers are slashing production as sales plunge.

In Russia, which became Europe's biggest car market this year, dealers reportedly were turning truckloads of vehicles away, saying they have no room for them.

GM itself has invested billions of dollars in China, helping push sales there to 1.03 million units in 2007 -- a 12 percent share in a viciously competitive market.

GM introduced three models new to China on Tuesday at Guangzhou. The Buick Enclave, a luxury SUV, is exported from the U.S. The powerful Cadillac CTS-V, also U.S.-made, is designed to compete with the world's fastest sport sedans. The third vehicle, the Cruze, will be manufactured in Shanghai among other worldwide locations.

"As a major player, if you want to have further growth in the future you have to invest in this market," says Zhang of CSM in Shanghai.

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