China is expected to surpass Japan in terms of automobile output in 2010 by manufacturing more than 10 million vehicles, the second-largest output in the world after the United States, Nomura Research Institute Ltd. said in a monthly report on Tuesday.

The Tokyo-based think tank forecast Japan's total vehicle production at 9.6 million units, compared with 10.15 million units in 2005.

Over the same period, China's automobile output is expected to rise to 10.79 million units, in the event of a boom in the compact car segment, or 9.07 million units, in a scenario in which the Chinese economy grows by only 7 percent per annum, according to the institute.

The institute noted that China's automobile production nearly quadrupled to 4.44 million units over a five-year period to 2003.